South Africa
Percent: 63.33, matches remaining: Pak (2 home)
South Africa is now at the top of the WTC standings after defeating Sri Lanka 2-0 in their series sweep. They only need to win one of their two Test matches against Pakistan in the home series, which begins later this month, to guarantee a spot in the final. With only one team from Australia or India able to surpass them, a 1-1 outcome would put them at 61.11%.
South Africa would finish with a score of 58.33 if both Tests were drawn. Both Australia (60.53) and India (58.77) can surpass that threshold if India defeats Australia 3-2 and Australia wins both Test matches in Sri Lanka. South Africa would need to hope that Australia wins no more than two of their remaining five Test matches or that India wins and draws the final three Test matches in Australia if they were to lose the series 1-0.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 45.45, matches remaining: Aus (2 home)
Even if Sri Lanka wins both Test matches against Australia, their final score would be 53.85, leaving them vulnerable to other outcomes. South Africa and either Australia or India can surpass that mark; Australia would require two victories, while India would need a win and a draw. Australia would need to win the series 2-1 with two draws if both teams were to finish below 53.85. South Africa would need to lose both Test matches against Pakistan in order to finish below 53.85%.
India
Percent: 57.29, matches remaining: Aus (3 away)
India needs two victories and a tie in their final three Test matches in Australia to guarantee a spot in the championship match. Even with a 2-0 victory in Sri Lanka, Australia can only finish on 57.02, so it would put them at least second after South Africa and put them at 60.53%. Australia might finish below them even if they defeat Sri Lanka 1-0, while India would finish on 58.77 if they win the series 3-2. India would finish at 53.51 if they lost 2-3, which would allow South Africa, Australia, and Sri Lanka to overtake them. They would need South Africa to lose both Test matches against Pakistan and hope that Australia receives at least a draw in Sri Lanka in order for them to qualify with that score.
Australia
Percent: 60.71, matches remaining: Ind (3 home Tests), SL (2 away)
To guarantee a spot in the final, Australia must defeat India by two in their final three Test matches. Even if they lost both Test matches in Sri Lanka, they would still finish on 55.26, which is greater than both India’s 53.51 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85, in that scenario (a 3-2 series victory). After South Africa, that would guarantee them at least a second position.
India would rise to 58.77 if they lost 2-3, though, and Australia would then need to win both Test matches in Sri Lanka to overtake India. Otherwise, they would have to pray that South Africa only draws with Pakistan once, leaving them at 55.56; Australia can go past that with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)
Pakistan’s mathematical chances are extremely slim and rely on South Africa surrendering an over-rate point. Pakistan would end at 52.38, only below South Africa’s 52.78, even if they won four of their four games. South Africa would fall to 52.08 if they lost a point. Then, with a number of additional outcomes in their favour, Pakistan might theoretically still place second to either India or Australia. However, Pakistan is most likely out.
Bangladesh, the West Indies, England, and New Zealand are eliminated from contention for a spot in the championship game.